China's iron and steel industry needs to reshape the value transmission chain
with the slowdown of China's economic growth, the iron and steel industry has entered the stage of reduction development. The extensive development mode driven by traditional factors has encountered unprecedented difficulties. The integration of platform economy and "two modernizations" has become the two major drivers of transformation and upgrading of iron and steel enterprises. On September 10, at the 2016 (fifth) China Iron and steel technology and economy high-end forum, Li Xinchuang, President and Secretary of the Party committee of the metallurgical industry planning and Research Institute, pointed out that at present, under the reduction development stage of China's iron and steel industry, we should promote the "nine Modernizations" synergy of reduction, greening, ordering, quality, differentiation, intelligence, diversification, service and internationalization, and reshape the value chain, That is, from the traditional steel value chain "taking the end value-added as the goal, taking the one-way process as the guidance, extensive production and management" to "the value-added value transmission chain of steel products"
the steel industry will usher in a long process of adjustment
Li Xinchuang, President and Secretary of the Party committee of the metallurgical industry planning and Research Institute, believes that at present, the high-speed growth cycle and the great prosperity stage of the global economy have ended, and the steel industry has entered a new stage of development, that is, a new round of platform period, which will usher in a long process of adjustment. Based on the judgment that the global steel consumption will still increase slightly in the medium to long term of 5-15 years, considering the impact of the decline in China's iron ore demand and the incremental demand for iron ore in other regions, the global iron ore demand will show a general trend of fluctuation and slow decline in the future, but will remain at a high level
in the medium and long term, as the global economy gradually gets rid of the impact of the financial crisis and the scope of recovery continues to expand, it will gradually drive the growth of steel consumption demand, especially in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa and other countries and regions, driven by industrialization and urbanization, there will be a certain amount of growth, hedging the impact of the decline in China's steel consumption. It is expected that in 2020 and 2030, The global steel demand is 1.522 billion tons and 1.536 billion tons respectively
from the perspective of regions, with the sharp decline of China's steel consumption, although the steel consumption of other emerging countries in Asia represented by India increased, the consumption of the whole region still showed a downward trend. In 2020, the consumption of steel in Asia was 940 million tons, a decrease of 40million tons over 2015. In 2030, the consumption in Asia will drop to 890 million tons, a decrease of 44.5 million tons over 2020. Steel consumption in other regions has increased and decreased, but the total consumption has not changed much. According to the downstream industry analysis and prediction method and GDP consumption intensity method, the actual demand for steel in China will be 595 million tons in 2020, 552 million tons in 2025 and 492 million tons in 2030
Li Xinchuang said that due to the rebalancing adjustment being carried out in China, the investment of commodity exporting countries is generally weak, so the global industrial activities and trade are depressed. However, in recent months, due to China's strengthened infrastructure investment and the rise in oil prices, global industrial activities and trade have rebounded. According to PMI, at present, the process of capacity reduction in China's steel industry has accelerated, the benefits of steel enterprises have gradually improved, and the capacity utilization rate has increased. At the same time, the demand for steel in China's downstream industries such as automobiles and household appliances has increased, steel exports have remained high, inventory digestion is more obvious, and the overall supply and demand situation of the industry continues to improve
quxiuli, vice president of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, believes that since 2016, the country has introduced macro policies to stabilize growth, promote supply structural reform, and resolve excess capacity. Steel demand is relatively stable, and market expectations are gradually increasing. With the recovery of steel market, price recovery and enterprises' efforts to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the efficiency of the steel industry has improved month by month. Among them, the profit of the current month was achieved in March, the cumulative profit was achieved in May, and the loss was gradually turned into profit. The amount and scope of loss were significantly reduced, but the operating pressure was still large
steel shows the trend of "arc top" + "downward channel"
Li Xinchuang pointed out that China's crude steel production has been in the downward area of peak arc top. From a medium-term, long-term and overall perspective, it has shown the trend of "arc top" + "downward channel", but it does not rule out the fluctuation and rebound in individual years. At present, there are ten trends in the development of China's steel industry: first, effectively resolve excess capacity. At this stage, China's iron and steel industry needs to follow the law of reduction development and transform and develop in strict accordance with the relevant national regulations of "eliminating a batch, digesting a batch, integrating a batch and transforming a batch". Although the steel price has rebounded, it is still low on the whole. The main reason is the serious overcapacity of steel. Therefore, the elimination of overcapacity is the top priority of the development of the steel industry. It is estimated that about 150 million tons will be eliminated during the 13th Five Year Plan period, of which 45 million tons will be eliminated in 2016. The second is to build the most internationally competitive industry. The iron and steel industry is the most internationally competitive industry in China's manufacturing industry in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the construction of innovation capacity of the iron and steel industry, including theoretical innovation, business model innovation, technological innovation and management method innovation. Third, we should make every effort to develop green steel. The core of the innovative development, transformation and upgrading of the iron and steel industry is green development, which requires that iron and steel enterprises must meet the laws, regulations and relevant provisions promulgated by the state and accept the joint supervision of the government and the people. Therefore, the current elimination of backward production capacity mainly depends on environmental protection standards, but the elimination of production capacity and green steel can be carried out synchronously. Fourth, nearly 20% of man-made greenhouse gas emissions are generated by the transportation sector through the transformation and upgrading of intelligent manufacturing. On the one hand, intelligent manufacturing can accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the iron and steel industry and lead the development of iron and steel products to the middle and high end. On the other hand, it can significantly improve the quality and efficiency of enterprise development. However, the key to R & D and innovation in the iron and steel industry is the construction of talent team. Because the iron and steel production environment is difficult, the employment prospect is not optimistic, and the enrollment of relevant majors in major universities is gradually shrinking, so improving the production environment and improving the intelligent water of the industry
but the key to R & D and innovation in the iron and steel industry is the construction of talent team. Because the iron and steel production environment is difficult, the employment prospect is not optimistic, The enrollment of relevant majors in major universities is gradually shrinking, so it is urgent to improve the production environment and improve the intelligent level of the industry. Fifth, vigorously increase effective supply. On the one hand, the increase of effective supply depends on the new products, new technologies and new services launched by steel enterprises, on the other hand, the low price strategy based on sustainable low cost. Improving variety quality, reducing energy consumption and improving effective supply are the top priorities of supply side reform. Sixth, optimize the industrial layout. The layout of the iron and steel industry should adhere to the "one belt, multiple points and networking", that is, the development of the coastal areas along the river should be accelerated, and the mainland should combine the environment with such a multi-point layout of resources that can only reach a certain load each time, so as to provide networking services for downstream users. Gradually promote the substantial improvement of heat resistance and oil resistance into the steady implementation of the coastal layout strategy of iron and steel, and deeply adjust and optimize the development layout of the iron and steel industry, which is of great significance to the transformation and reloading of the iron and steel industry. Seventh, accelerate the pace of joint restructuring. At present, the concentration of China's steel industry is only about 30%, which is obviously low. Therefore, the large-scale joint reorganization of steel enterprises not only meets the objective requirements of industrial transformation and upgrading, but also can increase effective supply in the supply side reform of steel, which is conducive to the healthy and stable development of the steel market. Eighth, promote opening-up and development. Seize the development opportunities of the "the Belt and Road", gradually form a trade order conducive to China's steel industry in terms of resource development, industrial transfer, steel trade disputes, technology and equipment export, reduce trade frictions, and form a favorable situation of win-win cooperation. Ninth, strengthen resource guarantee. At present, China's iron ore and high-quality coking coal still rely on imports to a large extent, so the security of key and strategic resources in the steel industry needs to be further improved. Ten is to improve the fair market environment. From the national level, the enforcement of environmental protection, finance and taxation, land and employment in different regions is different, the administrative supervision is not strict, the crackdown on fake and shoddy products is not strong, and even trade barriers still exist in some regions. The unfair market environment has aggravated the vicious competition in the steel industry and is not conducive to the transformation and upgrading of China's steel industry. Therefore, it is necessary to further improve the fair market environment
the profitability of China's steel industry is expected to remain
Li Xinchuang believes that at present, a new interactive situation between China and the world has begun to emerge. First, the grand vision of the "the Belt and Road" is a new trend of the future open world economy. Second, accelerate the internationalization strategy of RMB. Third, comprehensively promote the free trade zone strategy and build a free trade network system. Fourth, accelerate the implementation of the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading strategy and restructure the global value chain system. Fifth, strengthen the implementation of innovation driven development strategy and form an innovation driven economic systemQu Xiuli said that in the later stage, China's economy is expected to continue to maintain steady growth, the iron and steel industry will increase its capacity to resolve overcapacity, and the contradiction between market supply and demand will be further improved. At present, the social inventory and enterprise inventory of iron and steel in China are at a low level, and the slight rise in the prices of iron ore and coal forms a cost support, which is conducive to the stability of the steel market, and the profitability of the industry is expected to be maintained. However, the operation of the steel industry needs to pay attention to several issues: 1. What are the local components of the hydraulic universal data testing machine? The hydraulic universal data testing machine is the product of the separation of modern electronic technology and mechanical transmission technology, which is to control output and stabilize the market. Stabilizing the market and price is an important prerequisite for improving the level of industrial efficiency. In 2016, China's steel demand side was relatively stable, and the export situation was more severe. Controlling output is the key to stabilizing the market. Stabilize market prices, avoid sharp market fluctuations, control speculation, and establish a scientific and reasonable pricing mechanism. Second, reduce debt and prevent risks. At present, the asset liability ratio of China's steel industry is nearly 70%, higher than that of the industrial industry (56.4%), the current ratio and quick ratio are low, the debt burden of enterprises is heavy, the solvency is weak, and some enterprises have defaulted on their debts. Third, reduce costs and increase benefits. In 2016, the efficiency of China's iron and steel enterprises improved. In addition to the price rebound, the cost decreased significantly, but it is still at a low level in the industrial industry. Control the purchase cost of raw and fuel materials, vigorously save energy and reduce emissions, improve the added value of products, increase the construction of industrial chain, reduce costs and increase efficiency. The fourth is to transform the mechanism and increase vitality. At present, the steel market is changing rapidly. Only by adapting to the market can enterprises improve their competitiveness. It is necessary to correctly study and judge the market mechanism, the rapid response mechanism for decision-making, and the internal assessment and incentive mechanism. Fifth, pay attention to policies and achieve practical results. In order to promote the structural reform of supply and demand, support the development of the real economy, and promote the development of the iron and steel industry, the state has issued a series of macro policies. Enterprises should strengthen coordination and communication with local governments and departments, and strive for the implementation of policies