The most popular steel pipe fluctuated at a high l

2022-08-11
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In the first half of 2018, steel pipes fluctuated at a high level, and in the second half of 2018, they may be cautious

in the first half of 2018, the overall performance of steel pipes was acceptable under the support of environmental protection policies and supply and demand fundamentals. In terms of the specific price trend, the price of seamless pipes began to rise after the Spring Festival to a high point in early March, and then after a month and a half of decline, it began to become strong and volatile at the end of April. As of June 20, the price of seamless pipe was 4820 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton or 1.45% over the beginning of the year. The peak was 5000 yuan/ton, which appeared on March 5. The low point was 4650 yuan/ton on April 24

in terms of welded pipes, enterprises sorted out the decline before the Spring Festival to stimulate shipments, and then rebounded sharply after the festival, reaching a high point in early March. After about half a month of low-level consolidation, it began to become stronger and volatile at the end of March. As of June 20, the price of welded pipe was 4130 yuan/ton, which was 130 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the year, or 3.05%. The high point was 4280 yuan/ton on March 5, and the low point was 3950 yuan/ton on March 26

according to the analysis, the reasons affecting the price trend are: on the one hand, the continuous normalization of environmental protection, Langfang springs or elastic components as its components, Tangshan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places' environmental protection policies continued to increase in 2018, and the steel pipe production was affected to a certain extent, mainly seamless pipes and zinc plated pipes. Environmental protection policies have certain support for the market. Second, the continued strengthening of futures and raw materials has supported the market. However, on the other hand, the market's high shore hardness tester is used for measuring the shore hardness value of rubber products, and the wait-and-see mood is mostly. The lack of demand follow-up restricts the market, so the market is difficult to continue to rise. Therefore, from April, the market entered a game shock stage that lasted for about two months

for the trend in the second half of the year, the trend of steel pipes may fall first and then rise, and the center of gravity may be slightly lower than that in the first half of the year. From the perspective of analysis, on the one hand, it may have a certain negative impact on the market at the macro level. It is understood that the recent hedging of China US trade policy has a certain impact on the market. At the same time, the continuous interest rate hikes in the United States may increase the pressure on the Chinese market, and there may be the possibility of interest rate hikes in the domestic market in the later stage. The tightening of funds has restrictions on futures and is bad for the spot market. On the other hand, the current normalization of environmental protection has little impact on the actual supply, so the boost to the market is limited. Coupled with the high-level wait-and-see sentiment, the relatively soft demand must also restrict the market. Therefore, the trend of steel pipes in the second half of the year may be relatively cautious, and the overall trend is weakening and volatile. Specifically:

in terms of welded pipes, the reason why the molecular movement has obvious relaxation characteristics is that the market callback in June, the steel market has reached the traditional off-season, and the transaction pressure is large. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the overall decline will first and then rise, the low point or around the middle of August, the demand will improve in September, and the price will rise. In addition, with the advent of the heating season, the production restriction will affect the supply of raw materials, and the price will be firm. On the whole, the center of gravity shifted downward in the second half of the year, but the downward shift was limited. The average difference between the first half of the year and the second half of the year was about 100 yuan/ton

in terms of seamless pipes, it is expected that the decline of seamless pipes will narrow in the second half of the year, and the price may become stronger in September driven by demand. At present, seamless pipes are strongly supported by the cost side, and the price of pipe blank is strong. The profit of the blank adjustment pipe factory has decreased sharply this year, with a very low profit level and even a loss. In this case, the pipe factory has a low willingness to reduce prices, and the market price is relatively stable

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