The most popular steel market in 2012 will fail ag

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In 2012, the market of affordable housing in the steel market will fail again

in China, the consumption of construction steel accounts for about 60% of the total national demand. In other words, the trend of construction steel will directly determine the quality of the national steel market. With the continuous regulation and control policies of the state on the real estate industry, the growth rate of commercial housing development has decreased significantly. Although there are indemnificatory housing projects, due to various factors, the indemnificatory housing market in the steel market has failed for many times since 2011, which has warmed up the steel market to the hope that our company Jinan new period Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. hopes to build indemnificatory housing projects, which is somewhat "daydreaming"

according to the inventory statistics, as of May 11, the total inventory of rebar in China was about 7.41 million tons, 90000 tons less than that of last week, and the total inventory of wire rod was about 1.988 million tons, 24000 tons more than that of last week. The rate of destocking is still slow. Although the demand for steel in the downstream industry maintained a certain level, its growth rate decreased significantly. However, the output of the upstream steel plant remained at a high level of more than 97%. In late April, the average daily output of crude steel reached more than 2.02 million tons, a new high; Compared with the same period last year, the inventory of construction steel is still at a high level, and there is great pressure on sales in the spot market

the destocking speed of construction steel such as rebar is always slow, and the fundamental reason is that the market of affordable housing has failed again; According to the survey of market observers, the reason why the construction steel market maintained a relatively stable terminal demand from January to April this year was not brought about by the affordable housing project. The vast majority of construction steel such as deformed steel bars and high-speed wires went to the construction of commercial housing in third and fourth tier cities; Whether the nearly 7million affordable housing projects under construction left over from last year and the 7million new projects started this year have not fully satisfied the market demand for steel

"at present, the consumption of rebar in the market cannot be equated with the demand of nearly 15million Thai affordable housing projects under construction". Analysts pointed out that there are signs of speculation and slippage in the implementation of affordable housing projects by local governments at all levels. For example, the student apartments of some projects in Wuhan 10 years ago were reported as new affordable housing projects, and many people in other places such as Dongguan and Shenzhen did "OEM" affordable housing, As a result, insurance companies around the country will inform the barrier housing project in advance that the project is tense and prosperous. In fact, less than 30% of the real projects under construction, which creates a false impression on the steel market that downstream production is hot, but no one cares about the steel market, making the spot market more chaotic

local governments' blatant substitution of concepts and playing word games on affordable housing projects can be understood as gentle resistance to this livelihood policy, which is mainly due to the tightening of local governments' finances and the lack of profitability of affordable housing projects. 2012 was a peak period of centralized loan repayment by local governments. Coupled with the reduction of economic growth and the adjustment of tax policies, the fiscal revenue of local governments decreased; In addition, due to the recession of the real estate industry, the land finance that has prevailed for more than ten years is also greatly discounted; As a result, local governments are subjectively unwilling to invest in large-scale construction of affordable housing projects; In addition, the financing situation of affordable housing projects has not been effectively solved. In addition, most places have the embarrassment of long-term idleness after project excavation

another major objective reason is that since 2012, due to the postponement of the Spring Festival for more than a month, the cold winter period after the festival has been postponed for more than a month, the weather has not warmed up, and the normal commencement of outdoor projects is limited; In addition, since the Spring Festival, most provinces and cities in China are in long-term rainy weather, which virtually reduces the construction time of outdoor security housing projects, and also affects the de stocking speed of rebar to a certain extent

at present, the prices of major domestic steel products continue to decline in late April on the whole. Merchants in the spot market generally respond that it is difficult to ship goods and lack confidence in the future market. In addition, steel prices of steel mills such as Baosteel were stable and weakening in June. Our analysis shows that on May 11, Shagang and other East China building materials steel mills will continue to reduce the price policy of construction steel products in mid May. It is expected that rebar will be reduced by 60-100 yuan, spiral and high-speed wire will be reduced by about 50 yuan, The steel plant's attitude towards the later market has also been mainly bearish, reflecting that the order organization of the steel plant in May should not be ideal

now that one-third of May has passed, can the past of the explosive construction progress of affordable housing projects from May to June last year be staged in the same period this year? At present, it is the biggest doubt of merchants in the spot market, but judging from the fact that steel traders have not significantly stocked up recently and there is no large-scale centralized replenishment of inventory at the terminal site, the possibility is low. According to the analysis, due to the insufficient support of local governments and the large gold gap of 0.001~500 mm/min, the steel market should not have too high expectations for the steel demand of affordable housing projects in 2012, otherwise there will be unnecessary losses in order to realize the demand after hoarding

(source: Chinese steel)

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